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What Do I Know to Be True?

It is a brute of a question isn’t it; what do I know to be true?

Ray Dalio mentions the question in his book Principles. The question plays a key part in the steps he takes to make decisions. In the complex world of investing, having a rigorous process for making decisions is essential.

It separates the successful from the not so successful.

The question can – and should – play an equally critical role in our decision-making. Any decision, big or small needs a logical approach. Alas, we don’t tend to make decisions logically. Outcomes, no matter how outlandish blind us. Emotions do the same – and that’s all before we get to our walkway of biases looking to trip us up.

Of course, the outcome of your decision matters. But it shouldn’t blind you from using facts to make an informed choice. Often, choice brings a plethora of information. Most of it is incomplete information, which we use to form assumptions.

When we assume, we accept incomplete information as facts.

Therefore, asking what do I know to be true should be your first question. It allows you to challenge your assumptions, filtering out the truth from the hysteria, thus enabling you to see the facts. Emotions, biases, and assumptions have no place when seeking objectivity. And it is objectivity which facts provide, which in turn leads to a better decision.

It is why the first question you should ask yourself when faced with a decision is what do I know to be true?

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The Paradox of a Decision and Its Outcome

A good decision doesn’t always lead to a good outcome. The paradox – and this is the killer – is an unwise decision doesn’t always end up with a bad outcome either.

This reality blinds us.

It creates the impression we don’t have any control. Outcomes are random, influenced by fate, lady luck, and whatever else is in the air. Often, we negate what we can control as well, making choices without consideration. When outcomes go against us, we blame others.

We absolve ourselves of responsibility.

Understanding the paradox of a decision and its outcome is the biggest difference between those who succeed in life – and those who don’t.

It begins with an understanding of what you can control – and what you can’t. You can control the questions you ask; you can control the way you consider your options; you can control your assessment of the information you have. You can control the choice you make.

You can’t control others; you can’t control mother nature; you can’t control chance. You can’t control the outcome.

Knowing this, accepting this, and remembering this will empower your decision-making. It will empower you as accept you can be deliberate in your actions and choices. Your self-awareness will increase as you take control of the things you can control – rather than leaving them to chance. Your quality of judgements will improve.

Your outcomes might not get any better, but the responsibility will be with you. This is the true paradox of a decision and its outcome.  

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Reflect and Renew – Upgrade your New Year Resolutions

Reflect and renew is a great upgrade to the date act of a New Year’s Resolution. A resolution is a false promise of a new beginning – often crushed within a few days of the year commencing. Why? Because the act itself is flawed. A bold commitment to lose weight by eating less, or to stop consuming coffee by the gallon is whimsical and ill-thought-out.

But every year, with the changing of a digit we surrender ourselves to the aspiration of a new year resolution or two. The version in our heads of rarely matches reality. Instead, the outcome tends to look like the distorted reflection we see in a fairground mirror.

How can you change this outcome?

Two words spring to mind – reflect and renew. Two critical steps which, should always be a part of your decision-making process.

Reflecting on the year gone by, question the place you find yourself in today. What did you want to achieve at the beginning of the year? Have you achieved your goal? If you have – why and how did this happen? What works so you can repeat it?

If you didn’t achieve your goal – why not? What would have helped?

From this process of reflection, you will find some principles of behaviour. It is these you must renew and use as the platform for the year ahead as you adapt your goals for the year ahead.

Reflection and renewal will serve you far better than a new year’s resolution.

Annual Review time

The 1 Lesson We Should Take from This Year’s Annual Review

Dam…it’s nearly Christmas and amongst the many traditions of the year, I’ll be doing my own annual review. Yep, for the last three years, I’ve dismissed new year’s resolutions in favour of a more reflective assessment of the year gone by. I try to objectively reflect on the past year, compare where I am to where I wanted to be, and seize upon any lessons I can take to make me a better person in the year ahead.

The annual review builds upon my goal to become a better person. So, I look to answer the following questions…

  • What were my goals?
  • Did I achieve them?
  • If not, why not?
  • What could I have done better?
  • What would have helped?
  • If I did, why?

As I’ve begun to reflect on what has happened, I realise my 2020 review is going to be unique. Not only will my annual review hold the drama of COVID-19, so will everyone else’s. We have faced a global pandemic, one which has taken the lives of many people but also turned the way we live on its head. I – and probably you – have had to cope with lockdowns, face masks, social distancing, possibly even illness and loss – all of which have disrupted my life and others.  

Our Annual Review

An annual review isn’t only about your goals and whether you achieved them or not. It should also offer us a platform for some introspection. To look and assess our decisions – our choices – and how they worked for us. Vital to this is to reflect not only on the outcome but also the process of decision-making we followed.

2020 offers some insights to some different lessons for us though. Most of us live ‘normal’ lives, rarely are we tested by something so powerful as a pandemic. We get a view of how we deal with ‘life and death’ pressure. Now, how we see, how we orientate ourselves on the information we have, and then – the decisions we make – and the action we take matters far more than it ever has.

For me, this is one of the most interesting aspects of my annual review. Never have I had the circumstance of a pandemic to gauge my decision-making process.  Through my annual review, one lesson stands out. I suspect it will be many other reviews too.

We still don’t know what we don’t know

Our ability to assess risk has never come under greater scrutiny than it has in 2020. COVID-19 has shown how masterful confirmation bias is in us all - and that’s bad. It isn’t only confirmation bias which has affected our thinking.

We don’t understand the law of large numbers, we do not see loss aversion at work, and we accept the words of laypeople over experts.

In practical terms, our phones and TV’s are full of graphs and words we think understand, but we don’t.

Exponential is one of those words we don’t seem to get. Just as we can’t grasp probabilities, so we cannot get our heads around the much-referenced R-number. We marvel at the power of compounding without fully understanding how devastating it is in the hands of a contagious disease.

We don’t know what we don’t know.

Our biases are killing us

Blind to our biases, we do not see or challenge assumptions. We all have agenda’s - some more than others - and when the narrative doesn’t fit, we seek evidence to ensure our stories fit. Politicians have worried more about their future election successes, than the lives of the people they are there to lead and protect.

When it came to lockdowns, wearing masks, and social distancing, we did what suited us. In the beginning, the threat felt real, so we followed the rules. As time went by, and the more distant the threat felt, the less we followed the rules. Even though the virus was still with us.

The sad fact is, we don’t know what we don’t know. We make biased judgements all the time - often based on confirmation of information which suits our needs. If the facts don’t fit - we ignore them.

2020 has seen a year littered with evidence of our biases working against us. The people who we thought knew what they were talking about became compromised by incentives, more interested in their self-worth than the health of humanity.

Politicians started to put wealth before health. Pressured by those more concerned for their dividend payments, politicians buckled. “We’re following the science.” Well only until it didn’t suit them.

Our annual review lessons

Of course, 2020 has also shown had adaptable we are. Somehow, I have made it through the year without doing a Zoom call. Yes, I have used other video applications, but Zoom has escaped me - others haven’t been so lucky. We’ve also learnt to work from home, turning our dining rooms into makeshift offices at the same time.

Lockdowns have rewarded the introverts in us with peace - and cast extroverts into a world of gloom and suffering. The cost of solitude for those in need of company will no doubt become clear as we move on from this pandemic.

But we can’t escape what we don’t know.

It lurks, poised to defeat our ability to be rational when making decisions. It rails our assumptions into false positives, and it is, as I see it anyway, the biggest potential lesson from this year’s annual review.

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Assumptions Need to be Challenged – It Will Help You Make Better Decisions

Assumptions are the beliefs we carry in our heads – drawn from experiences of events or thoughts in our past. Each assumption comes loaded with risk because the present isn’t the past.

We assume what happened before will happen again.

Sometimes chance favours our assumption, and we get away with it. Where we come unstuck is, we don’t see it as ‘getting away with it’, we see it as good judgement, good luck, or simply great skill on our side.

Our confidence rises as we begin to believe we know better, as we puff our chests out and flex our shoulders. Of course, self-belief compounds the situation as we do not see the confirmation bias blinding our systems of judgement.

We can do no wrong.

And then, one of our assumptions fail. The chances are the failure occurred when we applied an assumption to a big decision. One where we need the outcome to go in our favour, but it doesn’t. We will bemoan luck or the unexpected as the reason, as we do not grasp the consequences of accepting an assumption.

Ray Dalio, in his book, Principles, uses one simple challenging question to every decision he faces. What do we know to be true?  

Assumptions aren’t facts. They are beliefs born from a moment when the facts aligned with the circumstances of the situation. Circumstance changes, life changes, luck changes – everything changes – which is why we must challenge our assumptions. We should always ask the same question Ray Dalio does.

Then we might be safe from our assumptions.

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Winning the Long Game of Life Is What We Want, but We Forget How to Play

The long game, the long view, strategic thinking. They are all the same thing – a process of not living for the short term but looking for longer-term payoffs. And yet we don’t live like it. We live in ‘the moment’ – guided by our short-term urges as we become ignorant of the laws of life.

The law of large numbers is one such example of a law we know of, but don’t understand.

We see 1% as a small number but ignore the impact of it on an enormous number. Take the mortality rate of COVID-19. If it was 1% – well that’s okay, we tell ourselves. One percent of a population the size of the US – well that’s a vast number – over three million. That’s not okay.

Not grasping this insight from the law of large numbers is one of two points we don’t understand.  When we see summaries from vast sums of data, we naively believe the same dynamic applies to a smaller group. We think a 1% mortality rate won’t affect us, but the disease doesn’t take one from a family – it takes whole families.

We know this, but we don’t understand it.

We can’t grasp the risks; we can’t see the danger we have become ignorant of. We would rather go shopping on a busy high street to satisfy an urge for the joy of a day than stay safe by not.

We have forgotten the rules of playing the long game.

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Thinking from First Principles: Why You’ll Need a Mindset Shift to Think Like This

Thinking from first principles requires a mindset shift which will challenge most of us. Often, we are too comfortable living with our assumptions to want to change.  

Assumptions litter our thinking. They define our beliefs, our behaviours, and often our outcomes. Guided by our earlier experiences we build assumptions – and live by them. We don’t grasp the consequence of luck, the impact of others, or entropy on future outcomes.  

When tasks before us are simple and repetitive – assumptions are fine. They make life easier to live. The problem comes when we apply old assumptions to new situations. We don’t expect the unexpected. So, when things go wrong, or the outcome isn’t to our liking – we rarely see it is our assumptions that have failed.

Thinking from first principles changes everything. Instead of living with assumptions, you go looking for them. You question them, you pull them apart – as you look to find the underlying elements of your assumptions. Now, you’re questioning everything. You’re asking questions as a child does; why, why, why?

Now you can see the horror of the ‘because it does’ answer parent deploys to their kids.

As you find them so you must challenge them with open questions, test your conclusions and then tweaking them and tuning them as you redefine what you know, by seeing what you don’t know.

Thinking from first principles is hard. Living by your assumptions is easy – it’s your choice.

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Why is Decision Making Important?

Why is decision making important?  It is a question which forces us to pause as we consider the complexities of it. In business, it galvanizes energy – all in the pursuit of growth. On a personal level, we see it as a consideration of choices. It is often less urgent, and more emotional.

Decision making is selecting one from a series of choices we face. Each choice gives us options based on our current situation and offers a path for the future. It is the future we are concerned about. Although we live in the present, we imagine our futures and we dwell on our histories.

We can’t predicate our futures, but we can prepare for them. And therefore, the importance of decision making makes itself clear. Decisions for today affect today – but also tomorrow.

It is this grasp of the future we do not understand.  

We do not see beyond today. Only the present – and it leads to a sense of sadness when we reflect on our past. Each decision matters, but our weakness is how we see each possibility as binary – both in choice – and outcome. Life is a game of trial and error, of less certainty and more enquiry.

The importance of decision making isn’t the outcome, but the process. The correct process should be one of testing, seeing, learning, adapting, and repeating. Life is complex – too complex for a binary outcome.

A man contemplating problem solving and decision making as looks forward.

Problem Solving and Decision Making – Two Essential Skills of a Good Leader

Problem solving and decision making are two fascinating skillsets. We call them out as two separate skills – and they are – but they also make use of the same core attributes.

They feed on a need to communicate well, both through questioning and listening, and be patient and not rushing both processes through. Thus, the greatest challenge any leader faces when it comes to solving problems and decision making is when the pressure of time comes into play. But as Robert Schuller highlights in his quote, allowing problem-solving to become the decision means you’ll never break free from the problem.

“Never bring the problem-solving stage into the decision-making stage. Otherwise, you surrender yourself to the problem rather than the solution.”

Robert H. Schuller

So how does a leader avoid this trap? How do they ensure the problem solving doesn’t become the be-all and end-all?

The 7 steps of Effective Problem Solving and Decision Making

A vital hurdle every leader must overcome is to avoid the impulsive urge to make quick decisions. Often when confronted with a problem, leaders or managers fall back in past behaviours. Urgency creates pressure to act quickly as a result, the problem still exists, just side-lined until it rears its ugly head again.

Good problem solving opens opportunity. A notable example of this is the first principles thinking executed by the likes of Elon Musk and others. Understanding the fundamentals blocks of a process and the problem it’s creating can lead to not just the problem but accelerate beyond it.

So, to avoid the trap, and use problem solving and decision making effectively, you should embody yourself with the following seven steps.

1.      What is the problem?

Often, especially in time-critical situations, people don’t define the problem. Some label themselves as fire-fighters, just content with dowsing out the flames. It is a reactionary behaviour and one commonplace with under-trained leaders. As great as some fire-fighters are, they can only put out so many fires at one time, often becoming a little industry.

The better approach is to define the problem, and this means asking the following questions:

  1. What is happening? (What makes you think there is a problem?)
  2. Where is it taking place?
  3. How is it happening?
  4. When is it happening?
  5. Why is it happening?
  6. With whom is it happening? (This isn’t a blame game…all you want to do is isolate the problem to a granular level.)
  7. Define what you understand to be the problem in writing by using as few sentences as possible. (Look at the answers to your what, where, why, when, and how questions.)

2.      What are the potential causes?

Having defined the problem it is now time to find out what might be causing the problem. Your leadership skills: your communication skills need to be strong, as you look to gather input from your team and those involved in the problem.

Key points:

  • Talk to those involved individually. Groupthink is a common cause of blindness to the problem, especially if there is blame culture within the business.
  • Document what you’ve heard and what you think is the root cause is.
  • Be inquisitive. You don’t know what you don’t know, so get the input of others and open yourself up to the feedback you’ll need to solve this problem.

3.      What other ways can you overcome the problem?

 Sometimes, getting to the root cause can take time. Of course, you can’t ignore it, but it is important to produce a plan to temporarily fix the problem. In business, a problem will be costing the business money, whether it be sales or profit. So, a temporary fix allows the business to move forward, providing it neutralises the downside of the original problem.

4.      How will you resolve the problem?

At this stage, you still don’t know what the actual problem is. All you have is a definition of the problem which is a diagnosis of the issue. You will have the team’s input, as well as your opinions as to what the next steps should be.

If you don’t, then at this stage you should think about reassessing the problem. One way forward could be to become more granular and adopt a first-principles approach.

  1. Break the problem down into its core parts
    • What forms the foundational blocks of the system in operation?
  2. Ask powerful questions to get to the truth of the problem
    • How do the parts fit together?
    • What was the original purpose of the system working in this way?
    • Name and separate your assumptions from the facts
  3. Remind yourself of the goal and create a new solution

Solve hard problems with inversion

Another way is to invert the problem using the following technique:

1. Understand the problem

Every solution starts with developing a clear understanding of what the problem is. In this instance, some clarity of the issue is vital.

2. Ask the opposite question

Convention wisdom means we see the world logically. But what if you turned the logical outcome on its head. Asking the opposite questions brings an unfamiliar perspective.

3. Answer the opposite question

It seems a simple logic, but you can’t just ask the opposite question and not answer it. You must think through the dynamics that come from asking the question. You’re looking for alternative viewpoints and thoughts you’ve not had before.

4. Join your answers up with your original problem

This is where solutions are born. You’re taking your conventional wisdom and aligning it with the opposite perspective. So often the blockers seen in the original problem become part of the solution.

5.      Define a plan to either fix the problem permanently or temporarily

You now know the problem. You understand the fix, and you are a position to assess the risks involved.

Assessing the risks means considering the worst-case scenarios and ensuring you avoid them. Your plan should take into the following points:

  • Is there any downtime to implementing the solution? If so, how long, and how much will it cost? Do you have backup systems in place to minimise the impact?
  • If the risk is too great, consider a temporary fix which keeps current operations in place and gives you time to further prepare for a permanent fix.
  • Document the plan and share it with all the relevant stakeholders. Communication is key.

Here we see the two skills of problem solving and decision making coming together. The two skills are vital to managing business risks as well as solving the problem.

6.      Monitor and measure the plan

Having evolved through the five steps to this stage, you mustn’t take your eye off the ball as it were.

  • Define timelines and assess progress
  • Report to the stakeholders, ensuring everyone is aware of progress or any delays.
  • If the plan doesn’t deliver, ask why? Learn from failure.

7.      Have you fixed the problem?

Don’t forget the problem you started with. Have you fixed it? You might find it wasn’t a problem at all. You will have learnt a lot about the part of the business where the problem occurred, and improvements will have taken place.

Use the opportunity to assess what worked, what didn’t, and what would have helped. These are three good questions to give you some perspective on the process you’ve undertaken.

Problem solving and decision making in unison

Throughout the process of problem solving, you’re making decisions. Right from the beginning when the problem first becomes clear, you have a choice to either react – firefight or to investigate. This progresses as move onto risk assessing the problem and then defining the solutions to overcome the issue.

Throughout the process, the critical element is to make decisions with the correct information to hand. Finding out the facts, as well as defeating your assumptions are all part of the process of making the right decision.

Problem solving and decision making – a process 

Problem solving isn’t easy. It becomes even more challenging when you have decisions to make. The seven steps I’ve outlined will give you the ability to investigate and diagnose the problem correctly.

  1. What is the problem?
  2. What are the potential causes?
  3. What other ways can you overcome the problem?
  4. How will you resolve the problem?
  5. Define a plan to either fix the problem permanently or temporarily.
  6. Monitor and measure the plan.
  7. Have you fixed the problem?

Of course, this logical step by step process might not enable you to diagnose the issue at hand. Some problems can be extremely hard, and an alternative approach might help. In this instance, first principles thinking or using the power of inversion are excellent ways to dig into hard problems. Problem solving and decision making are two skills every good leader needs. Using them together is an effective way to work.

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First Principles thinking through the eyes of a child

First Principles Thinking: Why We Need to Ask Questions Like a Child

First Principles thinking has incredible benefits, just ask Elon Musk. The approach has led him to increase battery capacity, making electric cars more practical and from there, building Tesla cars into a multi-billion-dollar company. Not only that, but Elon used the same approach; first principles thinking to dramatically reduce the cost of space travel. So, with examples such as these, why aren’t there more examples of this skill in use?

The answer is a sad one. A failing reality of our education system is it focuses on memory function rather than core skills, such as problem-solving and decision-making. Our schools crush the curiosity found in every child over the age of three or four. The curiosity is first principles thinking…

First Principles Thinking from a Childs Perspective 

My nephew is five. Like every five-year-old, he questions everything. “Why is it bedtime?” “Because it’s dark and time for you to get some sleep,” replies his dad. “Why does it get dark?” And often this is swiftly followed by “Why do I need to sleep?” My brother-in-law humour’s the questioning to a point, but as with most parents’ his patience soon disappears.  

Like every five-year-old, my nephews’ brain is like a sponge, and he wants to fill it. But, even at such an early age, his mind wants to utterly understand what is in front of him. If the first answer he gets doesn’t make sense to him, he keeps asking why until the explanation is something he understands.

“If you can’t explain it to a six-year-old, you don’t understand it yourself.”

Richard Feynman

First-principles thinking is the way children learn until they reach school age, at which point memorization becomes the dominate way they learn.

Young children have an innate urge to want to understand. It drives their questioning and their thinking beyond just knowing something. They want to fully understand what they see and hear.

Richard Feynman said it best when he said, “If you can’t explain it to a six-year-old, you don’t understand it yourself.” The simple reason being a child will keep questioning. It is first principles thinking in action.

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The Difference between Knowledge and Understanding

As children at school, and then through college and into working life, we become accustomed to knowing. In some specialist matters, we might undertake the learnings to understand something, but often we don’t.

We become conditioned to accept that if we don’t need to understand something, we can get away with having a level of knowledge. When the world of whatever you’re doing works, it’s okay. Knowledge is sufficient to enable you to keep doing the same thing day after day. But what if something goes wrong, what if it fails, or stops working. Knowledge without understanding is useless.

Knowledge doesn’t enable you to think outside the box.

Understanding does.

Understanding comes through using first principles thinking. Breaking down systems or functions to their parts enables you to develop a granular appreciation of how a system works. By getting to this level, you have grasped the process in its simplest form.

First Principles: Asking Questions as a Child Does

We’ve covered how we see first principles at work in young children. I have also explained why we need to develop an understanding over knowledge. So now, it’s time to look at how we can apply first principles thinking as an adult.

Without re-living your education, it’s hard to break the knowledge – and the assumptions – you’ve made. So, therefore, it’s practical to opt to use first principles thinking in selected situations. A good example is the need to solve problems.

Problem-solving is complex, particularly with difficult problems because our assumptions decide our approach and response. A first-principles approach will look like this:

  1. Break the problem down into its core parts
    • What forms the foundational blocks of the system in operation?
  2. Ask powerful questions to get to the truth of the problem
    • How do the parts fit together?
    • What was the original purpose of the system working in this way?
    • Name and separate your assumptions from the facts
  3. Remind yourself of the goal and create a new solution

A child might steam-roller through these, asking pointed ‘why’ questions at each stage. As an adult, we must apply the same logic to solve the problem at hand. “Why does the system work like this”?

Elon Musk, Space X and First Principles Thinking in Action

If we step back to Elon Musk and his explanation of first principles thinking, we can see this approach in operation. A bold problem such as do we get to Mars opens a vast number of foundational blocks. He would have to hire a rocket from NASA, with the cost – a huge amount. Why were rockets at NASA so expensive?

As Elon quickly discovered, it is because each one has a one-time use. From a commercial point of view, Elon had found a big problem. But it only led to more questions. What are the foundational blocks of a rocket? More importantly, what happens once a rocket has jettisoned its payload?

Ask a NASA scientist, and you’ll get a raft of assumptions about why they can’t return a rocket to earth once it’s finished in space.

It is first principles thinking in action and it is breath-taking. Even more so when you consider Space X has launched 650 satellites into space and is making money doing it. Although Space X hasn’t made it to Mars yet, this demonstration shows the logic of problem-solving using first principles.

Concluding Thoughts

There is a power to first principles thinking which breaks with conventional thinking. It is this step away from knowledge to understanding. The language of assumptions litters our thinking, it limits our decision-making and often stops us from making progress.

It is a behaviour we’re all capable of. We all did it as children, much to our parent’s annoyance. We pushed the limits of our parent’s knowledge and understanding, which sadly ended most of our inquisitiveness.

I see it being a power in decision-making as well. Decisions are all too often made from the assumptions of past behaviour, as we see in our System 1 thinking. The automatic, impulsive act of making decisions comes from an earlier learned experience. And as Daniel Kahneman points out in his book, Thinking Fast and Slow, this is a dangerous way to make important decisions. Far better to slow down and use system 2 to think through the choice ahead. Applying first principles thinking will impose a more methodical decision-making process, and that is a good thing.

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